The Republican Civil War Playing Out in Coos County

The grassroots anticipated every move. They knew exactly how the establishment would respond.

While Chair Michael Brainard played checkers with bureaucratic gatekeeping, the constitutional conservatives were playing chess.

What looked like a simple recall dispute in Oregon's Coos County Republican Central Committee reveals the sophisticated warfare happening inside the Republican Party nationwide. The establishment thought they could use procedural games to maintain control.

They miscalculated.

The Real Stakes Hidden Behind Legal Papers

The legal documents talk about Temporary Restraining Orders and recall procedures. They miss the actual battle being fought.

Denesa Rains and Chris Castleman aren't just any committee members facing recall. They're state platform delegates.

By removing them before the platform meeting, Brainard could influence what gets written into the statewide Republican platform. Specifically, he wanted to eliminate references to election integrity measures like ending vote-by-mail and returning to precinct voting.

The establishment fears these positions will hurt their gubernatorial candidates. The grassroots believe that vote-by-mail is precisely why Republicans can't win statewide office.

The data support the grassroots position.

Oregon's Devastating Vote-by-Mail Evidence

Oregon hasn't elected a Republican governor since 1982. Vote-by-mail became the exclusive election method in 1998. It was the pride of former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury.

Before universal mail voting, power alternated fairly evenly between parties. Since 1998, Democrats have controlled the governor's mansion for 37 consecutive years.

The correlation is striking. The establishment's response is telling.

Rather than challenge a system that has produced three decades of Republican defeats, establishment leaders actively work to prevent grassroots delegates from promoting election integrity in the party platform.

The Bureaucratic Warfare Playbook

Brainard's strategy was methodical. The Coos County Republican Party has 198 available Precinct Committee Person positions.

Only 49 are filled.

The previous chair, Rod Schilling, allowed the numbers to dwindle to maintain a reliable 25-vote majority. Brainard inherited this system and perfected it.

When grassroots patriots submitted standard SEL105 forms to become PCPs, Brainard refused them. He claimed different forms were required, but wouldn't provide them. He would deny requests for a vote on the appointments at the meetings.

He blocked votes on new appointments despite the party's precedent of accepting PCPs at regular meetings. He maintained his voting majority by organizational strangulation.

Then he initiated recalls against the grassroots members who threatened his control.

Why Establishment Republicans Choose Permanent Minority Status

The grassroots analysis cuts deep. Some Republican incumbents already vote with Democrats on key issues.

They are reluctant to challenge popular systems like vote-by-mail because it might cost them their seats. The establishment prefers keeping "leftist Republicans" in office rather than risking principled candidates who might lose.

This creates a perverse incentive structure. Establishment Republicans become comfortable as a permanent minority party because it eliminates the pressure to actually govern conservatively. It is also a rallying call to generate donations from sympathetic supporters who are unaware of the situation.

They can blame Democrats for bad outcomes while avoiding the hard work of advancing conservative principles.

Meanwhile, many Republican voters stay home because establishment candidates do not inspire them. The grassroots believe principled candidates would bring these voters back to the polls.

The Chess Match That Exposed Everything

Brainard thought he was executing a perfect pincer movement. Block new grassroots PCPs while removing existing grassroots leaders through recalls.

The grassroots saw it coming.

They anticipated his moves and prepared legal countermeasures. When Brainard initiated the recalls, he created the very legal vulnerabilities the grassroots needed to break his gatekeeping system.

The lawsuit does not just protect two delegates. If successful, it may force the appointment of all blocked PCPs and preserve grassroots representation at the state platform meeting.

Brainard's overreach became the mechanism for his own defeat.

The National Pattern Emerges

Coos County represents a microcosm of the Republican civil war playing out nationwide. The establishment uses procedural gatekeeping to maintain ideological control.

They block grassroots participation, water down conservative platforms, and prefer losing with moderate candidates to winning with constitutional conservatives.

The grassroots response is increasingly sophisticated. They are learning to use the establishment's own tactics against them, turning procedural games into legal vulnerabilities.

This war of attrition will determine the Republican Party's future. The establishment controls many levers of power, but the grassroots are building numbers and strategic capabilities.

Victory Conditions

True victory looks like 198 active PCPs committed to constitutional principles. A fully functioning county party that supports genuinely conservative candidates.

But the immediate battle is about precedent. Can establishment gatekeepers use bureaucratic warfare to exclude grassroots participation? Or will legal challenges force open the doors they have tried to close?

The grassroots anticipated every move and prepared accordingly. They knew this fight was coming and developed strategic responses.

The establishment thought they were playing checkers. They're discovering their opponents have been playing chess all along.

What happens in small counties like Coos will determine whether the Republican Party becomes a genuine conservative force or remains a controlled opposition comfortable with permanent minority status.

The chess match is far from over.